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Is Inflation Making a Return?

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Last Week’s Market Activity

Last week, we saw the markets roughly flat on some worse-than-expected inflation news, with the Dow down 0.13%, the S&P down 0.5%, the Nasdaq down 0.87%, and the Russell down 0.56% on a week-over-week basis. This is shocking, considering the price action we usually see when there are inflation misses. However, we’re not out of the woods yet, as there are some important economic data releases this week too!

Macroeconomic Indicators

Although there weren’t many economic data releases last week, we saw some rather concerning upsets in the few that came out. Although year-over-year core CPI and month-over-month CPI met expectations, month-over-month core and year-over-year CPI missed expectations slightly. Month-over-month core came in at 0.3%, as opposed to an expected 0.2%, and year-over-year CPI came in at 3.7%, versus an expected 3.6%. While these certainly aren’t huge misses, the fact that inflation is ticking back up is a bit concerning!

Upcoming Market Catalysts

This week, we’ll see some very important economic data releases, starting with new home sales on Tuesday. This will help give us an idea of how the housing market is doing amidst the incredibly high interest rates we’re seeing right now. On Thursday, we’ll get to see the revised Q2 GDP numbers, and on Friday, we will see information on personal income and spending, as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, PCE. The GDP and PCE data releases will be particularly important, as these are both metrics that are tracked by the Fed.

Notable Earnings Releases

Although earnings season has mostly come to an end, there are still some rather large companies reporting their earnings this week, such as:

09/19 – AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)
09/20 – FedEx Corporation (FDX), General Mills, Inc. (GIS), KB Home (KBH)
09/22 – Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS)

It will be particularly important to pay attention to what FDX, GIS, DRI, and KBH have to say in their earnings calls, as these companies are key indicators of how the economy is performing. FDX is one of the most important logistics companies in the US, so they will provide great insight into the rate at which goods are being shipped by retailers.

GIS, KBH, and DRI will all be able to provide great insight into where consumers are spending their money, whether that be on basic necessities, new homes, or restaurants.

⚡ Watchlist ⚡

Monitoring the market conditions this week.

⚡ Trade Wins from Last Week ⚡

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