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Historic High Inflation, Again?

Stock Market Analysis

The Traveling Trader

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Last Week’s Market Activity

This past week kicked off earnings season, and things were turbulent, to say the least. We saw record-high inflation in last month’s CPI release, big banks report some disturbing news, and Bill Ackman’s blank check company, Pershing Square Tontine Holdings, return around $4 billion to investors. Additionally, we also saw both Brent and WTI crude hover around the $100, representing some stability in the energy market.

Macroeconomic Indicators

A As we mentioned in the previous section, CPI data came in above expectations yet again, at 9.1%. This caused markets to draw down temporarily, but as of Friday, indices have largely recovered to where they were prior to the release. We also saw America’s largest bank, JPM, miss estimates as they begin to build credit reserves, and fortify the business for the tough economic times that may lie ahead.

Upcoming Market Catalysts

Although there are a lot of earnings releases next week, which we’ll cover in the next section, there aren’t many major economic reports being released next week.  The economic reports of note are Building Permits and Housing Starts on 07/19 and Existing Home Sales on 07/20.  These releases are going to give us a better idea of how the housing market is performing.  Needless to say, these releases will likely move housing-related stocks.

Notable Earnings  Releases

07/18 – Bank of America (BAC), Volvo (VOLVF), Goldman Sachs (GS),

07/19 – J B Hunt (JBHT), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

07/20 – United Airlines (UAL), CSX Corp (CSX), Discover Financial Services (DFS), Tesla (TSLA)

07/21 – Alaska Air Group (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), AutoNation (AN), Boston Beer Company (SAM), Union Pacific (UNP), Capital One Financial Group (COF), Snapchat (SNAP)

07/22 – American Express (AXP),

The upcoming week is jam-packed with earnings, yet again. Although we’ve already heard from some of the big banks this week, so we know what to expect, GS and BAC will be reporting this week.

Travel and freight companies, like UAL, ALK, AAL, LVS, JBHT, CSX, and UNP are also reporting this week. These companies will give us some insight on what to expect from the consumer in Q3, both in terms of travel, but also in terms of consumer goods.

NFLX will be setting the stage for big tech, as they’re the first big tech company to report this quarter. It will be interesting to see where they fall this quarter given a rough past couple of quarters.

Lastly, some important consumer companies, such as VOLVF, JNJ, DFS, TSLA, AN, SAM, COF, SNAP, and AXP will be reporting this week. These are all large established companies that will provide important commentary on trends in consumer spending activity.

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