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Fed Rate Hikes and a Technical Recession?

Technical Recession

This Week’s Stock Market Report

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Last Week’s Market Activity

Last week we saw some of the most influential companies in the stock market report earnings, however, they were not the stars of the show. We saw the Fed hike rates again, as well as a disastrous GDP release, confirming what we all feared. With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we have entered a technical recession!

Macroeconomic Indicators

As we mentioned before, the Fed hiked rates another 75 basis points, putting their target interest rate at 2.25%-2.5%. Additionally, the US GDP decreased by 0.9% in Q2, following a 1.6% decrease in Q1. Surprisingly, the market did not react as negatively as one would expect, with all major indices finishing the week green.

Upcoming Market Catalysts

Fortunately for us, the coming week will not be nearly as eventful as this week. We have Rental and Homeowner Vacancy Rates being announced on Wednesday. Key job data, including the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on Friday. It will be particularly important to pay attention to Friday’s releases, as they will give us a better idea on how the US economy is performing.

Notable Earnings Releases

08/01 – Simon Property Group (SPG), Pinterest (PINS), Avis Budget Group (CAR)

08/02 – Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Starbucks (SBUX), Caterpillar (CAT), PayPal (PYPL), Airbnb (ABNB), Marriott International (MAR), Uber (UBER)

08/03 – Toyota Motor Corp (TM), CVS Health (CVS), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Honda Motor Company (HMC)

08/04 – Alibaba (BABA), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Block Inc. (SQ), DoorDash (DASH), Kellogg Company (K)

08/05 – Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A & BRK.B)

Now that most of big tech is out of the way, we should see less volatility in the market around earnings. Nonetheless, we have quite a few companies of interest reporting this coming week.

Companies like SPG, CAR, SBUX, PYPL, ABNB, MAR, CVS, BKNG, K, and BUD will give us some insight as to how the consumer is behaving in such an inflationary environment. Travel companies will also provide helpful insight as to whether or not travel will continue to be hot into the fall and winter months.

Some of the smaller “big tech” companies, including PINS, BABA, SQ, UBER, and DASH will also be reporting next week. It will be interesting to see what they have to say after a mixed bag of big tech earnings this week.

Lastly, everyone loves to hear from the Oracle of Omaha, and Berkshire Hathaway. Needless to say, everyone will pay close attention to what they have to say in the BKR.A earnings report on Saturday.

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